A ranar 12 ga watan Yuli ne dakarun kasar Armeniya suka kai farmaki a garin Tovuz dake Azerbaijan. A harin, sojojin Azerbaijan bakwai suka rasa rayukansu. Arangamar da hakan ta haifar tsakanin bangarorin biyu ya sanya yin rashi ga dukkaninsu. A yayinda Armeniya ke zargin Azerbaijan da laifin afkuwar lamarin, hukumomin Azerbaijan na ganin cewa kasar Armeniya ce ta tsokalo fadar. Wannan rikicin ya haifar da sharhi a matakin kasa da kasa da kuma bude shafin kace-na-ce tsakanin kasashen biyu da suka dade basa rigima a tsakaninsu.
Akan wannan maudu’in mun kasance tare da Dkt. Murat Yeşiltaş, daraktan harkokin tsaro a Gidauniyar Ilimin Siyasa, Tattalin Arziki da Hallayar Dan Adam wato SETA dake nan Ankara baban birnin kasar Turkiyya.
A shekarar 1992 ne dakarun Armeniya da magoya bayansu sunka mamaye yankin Daglik Karabag da wasu garuruwa bakwai lamarin da ya sanya kasancewa kashi 20 cikin darin kasar Azerbaijan komawa kasar Armeniya. Bayan haka ne kuma aka kori Turkawa ‘yan kasar Azerbaijan daga gidajensu lamarin da ya sanyasu kasancewa cikin kasar a wasu yankunan a matsayan wadanda aka kora daga gidajensu daga yankin da Armeniya ta mamaye. Haka kuma dubban gomman al’umman Azerbaijan sun rasa rayukansu. Bayan yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta da aka yi a shekarar 1994 ne aka bayyana samun lumana a yankin. Sai dai, a watan Afirilun shekarar 2016 inda aka tafka yaki na kwanaki hudu mutane 200 suka rasa rayukansu. A farkon bazaran shekarar 2018, sojojin Azerbaijani sun ƙaddamar da wani shiri don sake kwato wani ƙaramin ƙauye a yankin Gunnut dake yankin tsaunukan Nakhichevan mai cin gashin kansa na Azerbaijan. Waɗannan abubuwan biyu ne kawai suka kasance abubuwan da suka sauya yankin tun 1994.
Harin Tovuz ya kasance lamarin da ya sake bude labulen rashin jituwa dake tsakanin Azerbaijan da Armeniya. Kamar yadda lamurkan yankin suka kasance a shekarun baya, a halin yanzu ma lamari da ya yadu a yankin baki daya, na tare da sanya hannun kasashen Rasha, Iran da Turkiyya. Akan haka akwai dalilai da dama da suka sanya kai harin Tovuz akan wannan abinda muka ambata.
Dalili na farko shi ne yadda gasar mallakar yanki ke ƙoƙarin yaduwa zuwa yankunan Kafkasiya. Akan haka za’a iya tunatar da cewa Rasha na hura wutan yaki tsakanin kasasahen biyu. Bako don komai ba sai don rikicin nasu na kara karfin matsayin Rasha a yankin. Duk da cewa Rasha tana bangaren Armeniya a dabarance amma ta kasance kasa wacce ta fi baiwa kasashen Armeniya da Azerbaijan din makamai. Rasha ta kasance mai siyarwa kasashen biyu makamai domin kara tada hankalin yankin baki daya.
Wata kasar kuma da take katsa landan a rikicin Armeniya da Azerbaijan ita ce Iran. Kusantar da Iran ke yiwa Armeniya, babbar makiyar Azerbaijan lamarin ya kasance yana damuwar Baku kwarai da gaske. A lokacin yakin Nagorno-Karabakh a farkon shekarun 1990, Iran ta kasance tare da Armeniya a matsayin wata hanya ta mamaye Azerbaijan a yankin. A shekarar 2019 kasuwanci tsakanin Iran da Armeniya ya cimma matakin da bai taba cimma ba. A bara ma da shugaban kasar Iran Hasan Ruhani ya ziyarci Armeniya ya furta cewa: “Zamu bayar da muhinmanci wajen bunkasa hulda da fadada dangantaka tsakaninmu da abokiyarmu kuma makociyarmu Armeniya.”
Tabbas kuma Turkiyya ta kasance mai fada aji a yankin kasancewar yadda tarihi da al’adu suka bata dama, akan haka ta kasance tare da kasar Azerbaijan. Kasancewar yadda Rasha take kara hura wutar yankin domin ganin irin abubuwan da Turkiyya ke yi a yankin Kudancin Kafkasiya, kamar dai yadda lamurka suka kasance a Siriya da Libiya na nuna muhinmancin matsayar Turkiyya a yankin. Idan aka yi la'akari da tasirin Moscow akan harkokin gwamnatin Yerevan, ana iya cewa hakan mai yiwuwa ne.
Baya ga gasar mallakar yanki da ake aikatawa, akwai kuma dalilan tattalin arziki dake haifar da rikicin. Kauyen Agdam da kowa ke bukata dake kan zuciyar Eurasi ya kasance kusa da mazaunar albarkatun bututun man fetur da isakar gas ga yankin Caspian, Asiya da Nahiyar Turai. Idan muka dubi taswira zamu ga cewa hanyoyi uku ne kawai za’a iya amfani dasu domin kai makamashi da yin cinikinsa zuwa Nahiyar Turai da Asiya: ta Iran, Rasha ko Azerbaijan. Wacannan hanyar bututun man mai fadin kilomita 100 ta rasta birni na biyu mafi girma a kasar Azerbaijan mai suna Ganja wanda aka fi sani da “Ganja Gap” da tsohon hanayr silk belt ya rasta. A rigingimun da aka yi a kwanakin bayan nan dukkan anyi sune a tsakiyar Ganja.
A halin yanzu akwai bututun man fetur da iskar gas mallakar Rasha da Iran uku da suka keta ta “Ganja Gap” Bututun Baku-Tiflis-Jeyhan, bututun Baku-Supsa da bututun Gas na Kudanci. Haka kuma hanya mai muhimmanci da ya hade Yammacin Turai da Caspian ya keta ne ta “Ganja Gap” . A bayyane dai, harin Tovuz bai kasance ba face akan wadan nan muhimman guraren. Idan Rasha tana bukatar matse Turkiyya domin Turai, Libiya da Siriya, babu wata guri da ya wuce ta fuskanta kamar “Ganja Gap”. Sabili da haka yin amfani da Armeniya da take yi nada dalilai da dama. Akwai manufofi da alkaluman da suke dogaro dasu domin sanya Armeniya ta dagule harkokin cikin gida da lalata tattalin arzikin Azerbaijan.
Tashin hankalin Armenia-Azerbaijan ya kasance kan gaba a sabon rikicin yanki. Akan haka idan aka dubi abubuwan da suka faru nan kusa, ya kamata a dauki matakai tare da shiryawa yiwuwar dagulewar rikicin.
Wanann sharhin Dkt. Murat Yeşiltaş ne, daraktan harkokin tsaro a Gidauniyar Ilimin Siyasa, Tattalin Arziki da Hallayar Dan Adam wato SETA dake nan Ankara baban birnin kasar Turkiyya.
